The views of boborojo.

Wednesday, May 2, 2007

FedSpending.org: why does Virginia(8) get the most grants?

Cool site I found recently: FedSpending.org. This is set up by the OMB to provide information in two databases: contracts and grants. At the time of this writing, charts show data from fiscal year 2000 through FY2005, plus partial-year data for FY2006. Let's dive in and see what we find at random.

Federal Contracts Paid
Among Federal contracts awarded by state in FY2005, top piggy Virginia takes 12.7% of Federal contract awards paid in FY2004, 16.1% in FY2005. In those same years California takes 16.5% and 14.4% respectively. Texas ranks third, taking 9.9% and 7.0% respectively. Since the top 10 contractors appar to be industrial and defense manufacturers, the nature of the top awards appears to be for defense/military spending.

It can be further broken down by looking at districts, and it seems the lion's share in the state goes to a particular district:

  • Virginia 8 (James P. Moran) takes 6.33% in FY2004, 9.59% in FY2005.
  • Virginia district 10 () takes 2.92% and 2.87% in thosee same years respectively.
  • California district 8 (Nancy Pelosi) takes 0.76% and 1.63 in those years.
  • Texas district 12 (Kay Granger) takes 2.58% and 1.56% respectively.
Federal Grants Paid
Loads more stuff. Under Grants, you can see "grants to individuals" assistance details. Interesting to see that the "Top 5 Known Congressional Districts where Recipients are Located" lists Florida (district 14), Texas (9), New Jersay (2), Puerto Rico nonvoting, and Louisiana (3). Very bizare, seeing Puerto Rico ranked #4 ahead of, say, any district in California or hurricane-ravaged Louisiana.

However, when you look at the top payouts (to individuals), the states that ranked at the top were:

  • Florida, $315 billion
  • California, $146 billion
  • Texas, $145 billion
  • New York, $85 billion
  • Louisiana $71.5 billion
  • Pennsylvania, 60.7 billion
  • New Jersay, $59.8 billion
  • Illinois, $52.9 billion
  • Ohio, $47.2 billion
  • North Carolina, 47.1 billion
  • Michigan, 42.2 billion

And Puerto Rico was way down on the list with $12 billion.

The top-five 2005 programs over all were:

  • Flood Insurance ($608 billion),
  • Social Security Retirement Insurance ($331 billion),
  • Medicare hospital insurance ($184 billion),
  • Medicare supplementary medical insurance ($151 billion), and
  • Social Security survivors insurance ($101 billion).

In Flood Insurance for 2005, payouts by recipient were

  • $51.4 billion to Florida,
  • $42.2 billion to California,
  • $75.5 billion to Texas,
  • $15 billion to New York,
  • $51.4 billion to Louisiana,
  • $4.8 billion to Missisippi,
  • $3.43 billion to Puerto Rico.

The order of ranking I am presenting above is in order of top payouts of total grants; for each state/protectorate the flood insurance is a varying percentage of total paid to the state.

It is surprising to see a huge number (hundreds or thousands, I stopped the search after a few minutes) of corporations getting grants paid out on the order of $2 million. This is obtained using the "low level of detail" which is the least detailed information, which produces the first 500 out of 175,602 records! Even the first 500 take minutes for the info to come back. You can get the full data set faster if you select "tab-delimited ASCII" report output and save the file.

So now slice it a different way. For 2005, Florida was the top grant recipient with $315 billion, and here are Florida's top 5 programs:

  • Flood Insurance: $237 billion (note this disagrees with the number above. Hmm.)
  • Social Security retirement insurance, $25 billion
  • Medicare supplementary insurance, $14 billion
  • Medicare hospital insurance, $14 billion
  • Social Security survivor's insurance, $6.3 billion.

In FY2005 California received $146 billion grants; the top five programs were:

  • Flood Insurance $42 billion
  • Social Security retirement insurance $31.9 billion
  • Medicare Hospital insurance $20 billion
  • Medicare supplementary insurance $18.7 billion
  • Social Security survivor's insurance: $9.1 billion

In 2005 third-ranked Texas received $145 billion grants; the top five programs were:

  • Flood Insurance $75.5 billion (contrast with Louisiana's $51 billion flood insurance)
  • Social Security retirement insurance $18.8 billion
  • Medicare Hospital insurance $11.6 billion
  • Medicare supplementary insurance $8.3 billion
  • Mortgage insurance homes: $7.8 billion
  • (Hmm, Social Security survivor didn't even make the top 5, and what's this mortgage insurance payout? Do most widows leave Texas for Florida-California ?)

Interesting Grant Category

So, just picking on a random recipient for 2005, I see that BUY-LOW DISCOUNT BEER & WINE (recipient ID 118509) of Texas was a recipient of $1.815 million in FY2005 grant money. Of this, it breaks down to two grant programs:

  • 59.041: Certified Development Company Loans (504 Loans): $1,065,000
  • 59.012: Small Business Loans: $750,000

I think if I was going to start a business, I'd look into how these two programs work!

Tuesday, April 10, 2007

Who consumes the world's oil?

I run into charts of "who uses how much of the world's oil" from time to time, and I will collect these here to see how it sorts out over time.

Matthew Simmons
First data set is from Matthew R. Simmons, who runs the consulting firm Simmons & Company International. This particular data set is pulled from his presentation Oct 2006 to Harvard Business Schoolhis , on slide #7. The only thing missing: when was this data collected?

26% United States
7.0% Japan
6.0% China
3.6% Germany
3.3% Russia
2.8% Brazil
2.8% South Korea
2.7% Canada
2.6% France
2.6% India
2.6% Mexico
2.4% Italy
2.2% United Kingdom
1.9% Spain
1.7% Saudi Arabia
1.4% Iran
1.3% Indonesia
1.1% Australia
1.1% Netherlands
1.1% Taiwan
23% The Rest of the World

General Comments on Peak Oil
If you have not read Simmons before, do check him out. I am reading his book, "Twilight in the Desert" (Wiley 2005). Or, at his web site (see above) you'll find a slew of presentations, free. In terms of outlook, Simmons is clearly an "oil bear" in the sense that he believes (1) an oil production decline is imminent (i.e. is happening now) and (2) the peak daily production rate has been achieved (or nearly so) from the worlds largest producing fields. All this, in the face of increasing demand. This means there are interesting times ahead in the form of declining production, finite supply, supply squeezes, and the inevitable follow-ons: higher prices, shortages. I can only conclude that other nasty things will inevitably follow: political and economic extortion, wars for oil, supply disruptions, maladies for those who consume a lot, and constraints on growth for rising nations. Fun stuff.

If you look at China and India as the world's rising economies, note that their combined consumption (13% of world supply) is still half of that in the U.S. (26%). It is tempting to conclude, with annual GDP growth rates in China in the range 10 to 15% for over a decade with no slowing in sight [need citation and corrections], you can conclude that some kind of "pull" will come to some kind of shoving match as we line up to eat this finite-sized pie of resource.

I would guess these two nations would make any number of back room deals to get at a larger share of the resources. Remember the Chinese Premier's visit to the U.S., I think 2005, the one where his first stop in the U.S. was to see Bill Gates and tour the Seattle Boeing plant, then to see Bush, then to see some oil-rich nations in Africa? And then he traveled to the Middle East; and was Venezuela on his itinerary? I forget. He was not putting on these miles to collect souveniers.

I try to imagine what arguments would refute Simmons work, and come up lacking. One item I take away is that the super-big oil and gas fields have basically been all discovered, and *iff* we don't have any mega-discoveries from here on out, then the hypothesis (of declining production in existing mega-fields) holds. If there is some nation or entity that is sitting on some secret reserves that are not on Simmons' radar, it weakens his thesis only because it postpones the inevitable decline in production of a finite resource. Nothing invalidates the basic fact that oil/gas is a finite resource. And many of us are use oil like there will be an ample-oil tommorrow.

If you were to just want to ask the question, "have we already reached the point of peak production," (or, "are we there yet") you miss the point. Many have pointed out that the effects of "peak oil" do not occur when the next-to-last drop is pulled from the ground.

Wednesday, March 28, 2007

Company "Warrantee Division" (NJ) is a scam. whocalled.us ?

Summary: the site whocalled.us is cool. Here's why.

I keep getting calls every month or two, and mailings, from something called "warranty division" at 723 (New Jersey area code) 242-6506, and 723 242-6512. The mailing says I am about to expire my factory warranty on a vehicle I bought a few years ago. The mailings have the VIN number and some model info printed on the top. So it looks legit, right?

Except that I got an offer from the manufacturer, soon after I bought the vehicle, to purchase an extended factory warranty. And I bought it. So when I see these mailings, it reminds me of the time that I thought I bought the warranty via phone and credit card only to have it screw up and not go through; it took two tries to get it right after that. Because of that snafu, I always have lingering doubts about whether my warranty is good, even though the warranty service card sits in the vehicle and the contract is in my files (somewhere).

Since the caller ID from Warranty Division pops up occasionally, I decided to call them back a few days ago. I got a phone answering machine saying I can be removed from the Warranty Division caller list if I leave my number. No operator, no electronic voice mail system, just a hoaky answering machine and a "beep." So I left the nastygram.

And today a man called back. I said "Is this the factory warranty center? Because I already bought a factory warranty." He didn't answer yes or no, but instead said, "It's possible the VIN number on your warranty contract doesn't agree with what's on record, and the dealer doesn't have a record of your warranty." So at that point, rather than explode, I said, "I have the contract here, let's give it a look right now." He said "OK." I just happened to have the file handy, because I went and checked all this stuff yesterday. And I got it. And the warranty with the factory had the VIN that matched my title. And when I got back on the phone, he was gone. He hung up.

Next I called my local car dealer, and asked them to not release my personal info for sales of other produts. They said that was already their policy. So how did these guys get the info? He figured it was probably the State Motor Vehicle records that led them to me (but how did they get my number? I'm unlisted, and as of a month ago I'm on the National do-not-call list). He also had the opinion that they are trying to scam me to buy something, that they have been operating this way for years, and that I would probably not be happy with the warranty they sell, and if I have a factory extended warranty to ignore them, and there has been no success in stopping their scam marketing efforts. Oh.

So I called back the Warranty Division, and again got the same message machine I got a few days ago. I left a message that they could stop their calls again please, and that their rep had hung up when I pressed him. And that I would certainly send this info to my State Atty. General and perhaps the Atty. General in New Jersey. Argh!

Now, here is a great way to dig up info: whocalled.us is a great site. You put in the area code and number from your caller ID, and there it is: a form tells you how many other callers logged the same call, a form to report your incident. There is a place to put in a comment about what happened, and read other folk's comments and what they found out about the caller. Great resource!!

Tuesday, March 27, 2007

The Creation Museum


I was just listening to Chris Hodges on the radio, delivering an address in Colorado January 2007. (This is a very smart fellow. I am getting worried about a creeping tide of fascism in the US, especially religious tyrany, whether directed at, well, anyone.) He mentioned this nugget, "The Creation Museum," and sure-as-shit, here it is, opening in Ohio in 2007, thanks to some "godly men" (their words, not mine, see the FAQ below). From their web site:

"About the Creation Museum: The 50,000 sq. ft. Creation Museum located within the greater Cincinnati area will proclaim the Bible as supreme authority in all matters of faith and practice in every area it touches on. Set to open in June 2007, this “walk through history” museum will counter evolutionary natural history museums that turn countless minds against Christ and Scripture."


OhhhKayyyy????? The hosting website is Answers in Genesis: "Upholding the Authority of the Bible from the Very First Verse." Sorry, not for me, thanks. I wonder if the public school kids will go on field trips in their big yellow (taxpayer-funded) school buses to the wonderful creation museum, hmmm?

So, Why? Let's read their words in the FAQs in Answers in Genesis. right at question #1.

"Why is this museum needed? Our increasingly anti-Christian country must return to a belief in the authority of the Bible and be presented with the life-changing gospel message. Evolutionary indoctrination has undermined the Christian foundations in America."

First off, I don't consider the foundation of the country to be Christian. I consider the foundation of this country to be freedom of, and also freedom from, religion. You can have yours, or none at all, and I for my choice can have mine, or none at all. Why is our country turning so anti-agnostic and anti-atheist?

Second, why are these religionists trying to destroy science? Didn't the enlightenment teach mankind anything... remember Galileo's little dust-up with the church over whether the Earth is fixed at the center of the universe versus the theory of heliocentrism? More from the FAQ:

"What is so different about this museum? Almost all natural history museums proclaim an evolutionary, humanistic worldview. For example, they will typically place dinosaurs on an evolutionary timeline millions of years before man. AiG’s museum will proclaim the authority and accuracy of the Bible from Genesis to Revelation, and will show that there is a Creator, and that this Creator is Jesus Christ (Colossians 1:15-20), who is our Savior.


So who do we thank for doing this? I mean besides... Glad you asked, the FAQ has the answer.

"Who are the leaders of Answers in Genesis? AiG’s board of directors consists of Christian leaders who are thoroughly committed to proclaiming biblical truths and reaching the world for the cause of Christ. The individual members bring to the board a wide background of professional and pastoral experiences. Each is a godly man who walks with the Lord in wisdom and maturity. AiG’s president is Ken Ham, well-known speaker, author and radio host. AiG is a non-denominational ministry, having no affiliation with any particular denomination."

Got to like the "just a Christian, no denomination" part; floating above the rest of the christians, are you? Well, enough of this bollocks. Good grief, the guy moved from Australia to the U.S.; Aussies, it's your lucky good fortune he left you. Thanks a lot.

By the way (if you've read this far, dear reader), check out the documentary film Jesus Camp. Really. Came out on DVD in 2007 already, I just watched it last month. Go right now to your Blockbuster, rent it and watch it. Blockbuster carries this, right? Still think I'm paranoid? Can you now agree that we are seeing a rise of a fascist movement here in the U.S.?

WTF.

Monday, March 12, 2007

No child left behind: Brzezinski gives Bush an "F." Let's not let Georgie fail!

"How do you expect a democracy in that setting? " An (another) F for George Bush.

Bloomberg TV interview broadcast Monday 12 March 2007 of Zbigniew Brzezinski, and discussion of his recent book, "Second Chance: Three Presidents and the Crisis of American Superpower." ZB now at the CSIS: Center for Strategic & International Studies.

Notes to follow.
--------------------------------
[] Is Congress taking the wrong approach to Iraq?

I think the Congress has no alternative, given the fact that the elections last November were fought largely over the Iraq issue, and the Democratic congress came to power because it had a very critical view of the stewardship of the president of the Iraqi war. So we are seeing the preliminary skirmishing, but I think the Congress really has to do what it is trying to do.

[]So the Bush administration, potentially, is making an error on this, as far as Iraq goes?

That depends. The president obviously is personally committed. He doesn't want to, in effect, have his policy refuted. But to the extent that he can succeed in blaming the Democrats for the "lack of victory," even though his definition of victory was really unrealistic, then to that extent he can score some political points. This is why I call it skirmishing.

[] Well you are quite critical of the Pres in a new book that you have written... You give the current president a grade of an "F". What has he failed at, in your view?

I think he has failed in global leadership, and I think that is the greatest tragedy of his administration. You know, he came to power with America still standing tall, after the leadership provided, first of all by his father, then, with some failings, by president Clinton. But he has managed to undermine American credibility, world wide, American legitimacy, worldwide, and respect for American power, worldwide. That is a real disaster. And this is why---in that table that I have ranking the three presidents in different categories---I do, very reluctantly as a citizen, give him the grade of F, failure.

[]Some of his supporters might argue that the president has kept America safe from any further terorist attack. How do you factor that into the equation?

I think the evidence for that is limited. First of all, thousands of Americans have died since then, both in Iraq and in Afghanistan. The war in Afghanistan has been neglected, thereby letting al Qeada reconstitute itself . It is true that domestically there has been no act of terror, but that's hardly related to what we have been doing in Iraq. In part it may be good work by the law enforcement agencies; in part it may be because al Qeada was disrupted initially in Afghanistan and hasn't had time yet to stage a come-back.

[]What should president Bush be doing now... to improve his grade?

I would think he should be giving serious negotiations a serious chance. He and his secretary of state have been so dismissive of diplomacy. They have been saying that diplomatic efforts are not worthwhile unless we know in advance that those we negotiate with agree with our positions. Well, that's a non-starter, in giving diplomacy a chance.

I think the conference over the weekend in Iraq with all of Iraq's neighbors suggests that the neighbors, at least, including Syria and Iran, recognize that a disrupted exploding Iraq is not in their interest. And therefore we should be able to exploit that attitude, to try to formulate some political context for the termination of the war, including American disengagement from Iraq.

[] You talk, in your book, about [how] America needs to restore its political credibility and legitimacy. If that's the case, how can the US move forward successfully on the diplomatic front, if it's lacking some of that that you mention in the book.

I think only by proving credibly that it is serious about negotiating. If our definition of negotiations is that we only talk to those who, in advance, agree to our demands, then we'll never demonstrate credibility and legitimacy in seeking alternative solutions to those imposed by force. Sometimes you have to use force. But when you choose to use force before giving the other alternative a chance, then the responsibility rests on you to be effective in the use of force. And the sad, sad fact of our engagement in Iraq is that the President has bungled badly in deciding to go to war, and then in the way he has waged that war.

[] Is Iran a major threat to the United Staes?

It is a country that is weak economically and militarily. It may, at some point, have weapons of mass destruction, but that's years away. We have time to undertake a serious effort to deter and forestall that from happening: by accomodation, by compromises, by promoting, at the same time, a dialog with the Iranians. Because we know that a large proportion of the Iranian people like America and don't like being ruled by the mullahs. And if we are smart about it, I think we can avoid the worst, and have our cake and eat it too---that is to say, have some accomodation with Iran while at the same time getting the Iranians not to cross the t's and dot the i's in the quest for nuclear weapons.

[] Do you think democracy is achievable in Iraq, if so when? And should American troups withdraw immediately?

I think American troups should withdraw within a year or so, while we go about creating a political context that absorbs some of the consequences of the withdrawl. And this is why the political effort is so needed.

Will there be a Democracy in Iraq? No! I don't think so. I think this was a totally unrealistic objective, made even less likely by the destructive impact of American war in Iraq on the Iraq society.

Just consider this one short list of figures. The Iraqi population was twenty-four million when we walked in. Two million have fled the country, probably the ablest and best educated. A million and a half have been displaced. And according to the John Hopkins University study, about a half million more were neither born, or died earlier than they would have. A total loss of close to four million people. How do you expect a democracy in that setting?

End of interview.

ZB points out how Secretary Rice has so often failed to engage diplomatically, and we need only look down a few posts in this blog to read Rice's own rationale as recently as Jan 11 2007, responding to Sen. Chris Dodd:
"I think it's extremely important to note that we have talked to the Syrians, we've generally gotten nowhere, and now we would be going in a way that I would fear looks like a supplicant." --- Rice.
Right, g*d forbid that we should "look like a supplicant," let's continue to occupy a foreign land... is it so much better that they and their neighbors hate and fear us, than we fear "what it makes us look" like? I feel so strong now... I nominate that this president's name be changed immediately to "George F. Bush" to commemorate the "accomplishment" thus far achieved. You have two years of summer school (well, now 22 months) to make up your failed course in international relations. Argh.

Monday, January 22, 2007

The AEI as author of Bush's Jan 10 2007 Iraq plan.

Another interesting nugget about George Bush's January 2007 Iraq "surge" plan. It's possible to read what's possibly the basis for the plan, in a civilian version, from its think-tank author, the AEI (American Enterprise Institute). You can hear a Senate FRC hearing where, of Jan 11, the AEI author (Kagan) and two panelists of differing view are quized by Senators.

The afternoon of Jan 11 2007, the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations conducted more of its policy hearings on the Iraq war: The Remaining Options: Troop Surge, Partition, or Withdrawl. To watch the streaming video try a link here or here.

Three witnesses sat at opposing ends of the stay/exit spectrum.

  • The Honorable Peter W. Galbraith, Senior Diplomatic Fellow, Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, Washington, DC.
  • Dr. Frederick W. Kagan. Resident Scholar, American Enterprise Institute, Washington, DC
  • Dr. Ted Galen Carpenter, Vice President for Defense and Foreign Policy Studies, CATO Institute, Washington, DC.

Other goop: Wikipedia entry for Galbraith; none for Carpenter but there is one for CATO Institute. One parting grain of sand in the oyster of the conspiracy ironists: the Wikipedia entry for F. W. Kagan reports that his father, Donald Kagan, is a profesor at... wait for it... Yale! You know... skull and crossbones and all that old-boy stuff. Hey, it's not what you know, it's who you know!

Friday, January 19, 2007

Transcript Senator Barbara Boxer and Secretary Rice 2007-01-11 Sen-FRC The Administration Policy on Iraq

Fortunately, I don't have to transcribe this one. It has been published in full several places, search for it or try the copy at the New York Times Jan 11 2007.

Thursday, January 18, 2007

Transcript Senator Chris Dodd and Secretary Rice 2007-01-11 Sen-FRC

This is a transcript of the entire exchange between Senator Chris Dodd (D-Connecticut) and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, appearing at the Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing 10:00 AM Thursday 11 January, 2007. A website for this meeting, titled The Administration's Plan for Iraq (has just moved from Jan 16 '07) carries streaming video of the entire proceeding. I prepared this transcript as best I could from a video recording. You might also find Sen. Dodd's prepared opening remarks on his website here, but what I found there was not the entire opening remarks, nor the Q&A exchange.

Linguistic pieces that stand out here: Sen. Dodd quotes Churchill on "fool's paradise;" the term "supplicant" (as in U.S. not wanting to appear to be one) appears in Secretary Rice's remarks.



[Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Connecticut)]
Thank you Mr. Chairman, and thank you Madame Secretary. Let me thank you as well, we have had some conversations over the last couple of weeks prior to the trip that Sen. Kerry and I took to the region and then on the return as well. I thank you for that, and I thank you for being here this morning. And again I thank the chairman for holding the series of hearings we are going to have on this subject matter that offer, I hope, an opportunity for us to not only listen to you, as we did the President last evening, but also an opportunity for you to hear from us as well.

I think it's important that there be a conversation here as we try to sort out this policy and begin to make sense of it. It's not about Democrats and Republicans, it's about getting this right. And I couldn't agree more with Sen. Biden, I don't know of another foreign policy crisis that's been as compelling as this one. Over the past 32 years as a member of the house, and as a member of this body, and a member of this committee for a quarter of a century, I've never been to a region where it's felt it was more in crisis that it is today, and at greater risk. I'd like to share just some opening thoughts and comments and then get to a quick question.

On the eve of the Second World War, the twentieth century's most daunting and difficult struggle, Winston Churchill explained in the following words a compelling thought. He said,

"There is no worse mistake in public leadership than to hold out false hopes soon to be swept away. [People] can face peril or misfortune with fortitude and buoyancy, but they bitterly resent being deceived or finding that those responsible for their affairs are themselves dwelling in a fool's paradise."

Madame Secretary, I'm sorry to say today, and I think many hold this view, that a fools paradise describes nothing as aptly as our Iraq policy today. I think most Americans know it painfully; the Iraqi people, of course, know this in compelling numbers. If the president did grasp, I think, the sad extent of that failure, I sincerely doubt he would have ordered yet more troops into Iraq. The President's plan simply strikes me as a continuation of Operation Together Forward which has been described already, which far from improving Iraq's security climate produced the unintended consequences of heightened sectarian violence.

I fail to see, and I think many others share this view, that the outcome will be different this time. And that is a true disservice to the American troops, which have shown nothing other than professionalism and courage, and they should not be asked to risk their lives for an unsound strategy, and an unsound and unsure purpose.

The Baker-Hamilton report should have disabused us of the notion that, caught in the midst of sectarian, ethnic, and religious political hatreds, we can simply bludgeon our way to victory. As many have been saying for some time now, only political and diplomatic possibilities hold out any real hope of reversing this spiral into chaos.

The time for blunt force I think is long past, and many hold that view. Instead, we ought to withdraw, I think, our combat troops from these large urban area of sectarian conflict, where they simply are cannon fodder. There are twenty three militias operating in Baghdad alone. It's hard to identify exactly who is the enemy here. We have Shi'ias and Sunnis, you have Ba'athists, you have insurgents, some al-Qaeda elements. Here, asking our military people to sort out who the enemy is in all of this is extremely difficult, to put it mildly.

Instead, we ought to be focusing our attention on training reliable Iraqi security forces, providing some security at the border areas, and as several of our junior officers that I talked with in Baghdad suggested, providing the kind of security around some of these critical infrastructure areas that provide the kind of water, sewage, electrical grids, that is so critical to people having some sense of opportunity, or hope for the future.

If the only solution to Iraq is a political one, then diplomacy happens to be the weapon that we have left and must use. The President's solution to all of this is to ignore the most important recommendations of the Iraq Study Group, namely, robust diplomacy, and instead must settle instead on an escalation of our current combat strategy. This is a tactic in search of a strategy in my view, and will not bring us a more stable Iraq.

The American people have spent 14 billion dollars training and equipping three hundred thousand Iraqi police and security forces. As I've said a moment ago, 23 separate sectarian militias operate with impunity throughout Baghdad alone. Sectarian killings continue, largely unabated, averaging scores of deaths every day, thousands a month.

This is not random violence. This is targeted civil war, complete with ethnic cleansing. Those of us who have been to Iraq recently have seen it with our own eyes, heard it with our own ears.

Beyond that, the President's own intelligence experts have told us that the Islamic world is growing more radical, and that the terrorist threat is greater today than it was in nine-eleven. Not despite, but because of the continuing war in Iraq. Their conclusion: it has become the physical and ideological training ground for the next generation of extremists.

The wider region has been further plunged into violence, we know: Hezbollah has crippled the Lebanese government, civil war in the Palestinian territories now seems more likely than ever, Syria and Iran are more powerful and emboldened than they have been in recent memory. We are farther away from stabilizing Afghanistan, as drug traffickers and tribals warfare now threaten to destroy its nascent democracy, and the Taliban is growing stronger by the hour.
And perhaps most troubling of all is our standing in the world. According to the Pew Center for Global Opinion, most people in Great Britain, France, Spain, Russia, Indonesia, Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, Pakistan, Nigeria, India and China think that the war in Iraq is a greater danger to world peace than either Iran or North Korea. Stunning as those numbers are, the President says we are in a war of ideas. But how can we possibly win that kind of a war, between democracy and extremism, when so much of the world considers us to be the threat? It's deeply troubling to me, as I hope it is to you as well.

How weakened is our standing in the world and our support from foreign peoples? How may tools have we thrown away, and how safe are we now?
Senator Lugar raised an important question in his opening comments that I would like you to address if you can. And that is, none of us are suggesting at this table that we engage Iran or Syriaas if they were an ally, or a friend. We are talking about conferences where we give them a status that they do not deserve.
But it's awfully difficult to understand, Madame Secretary, why we would not try to engage very directly with people here whocould play a critical role in providing some stability. We heard in Syria the president say that he is interested in a secular Arab state operating on his border. He does not want a Shi'ia dominated fundamentalist state on his border. That was just a comment to us in the room with embassy personnel present.

It seems to me it's worth examining and exploring those areas where we can have a common ground here rather than just neglecting or ignoring that kind of an offer if we are going to bring stability to the region.

I wish you'd once again address again, the issue raised by Senator Lugar in the context in which he raised it. Not diplomacy as a favor or a gift, or some acknowledgement that we agree with these people, but rather the necessity for the United States to lead in a region where we have not been able to do so.

[Secretary Rice]
Thank you Senator, let me address the question first Iran and Syria. And they are different. And I think we need to separate the two. First of all, on Syria. We did engage. For quite a long time. Colin Powell engaged. Rich Armitage engaged. Bill Burns engaged. And in fact, we got nowhere. And indeed I would argue that the situation from our point ofview is worst today, in terms of the terms on which we would be engaging, than it was at that time.

The terms on which we would be engaging now, and on which we are being asked to engage, is that we go to the Syrians and say, help us to stabilize Iraq, or, lets join in our common interest to stabilize Iraq. That's what we would say to them.

The problem of course, is that if they have an interest in stabilizing Iraq, I assume that they will do it on the basis of their national interest, and that they will do it because it is in their national interest. To do anything more with them is to suggest that a trade-off is possible. You help us stabilize in Iraq, and perhaps we will overlook some of your activities in Lebanon. You help us stabilize in Iraq, perhaps we can do something to shave some of the teeth from the tribunal.

I think it's extremely important to note that we have talked to the Syrians, we've generally gotten nowhere, and now we would be going in a way that I would fear looks like a supplicant.

[Sen. Chris Dodd]
Can I just ask you, Madame Secretary, is that speculation on your part...

[Secretary Rice]
No...

[Sen. Chris Dodd]
... or has that been the reaction you have heard?

[Secretary Rice]
Well I would also just note that an awful lot of people have engaged the Syrians recently to no good effect. The Italians, the Germans, the British, all engaged them.

[Sen. Chris Dodd]
How about us?

[Secretary Rice]
Senator Dodd, if I really thought that the Syrians didn't know how to help stabilize Iraq and we needed to tell them, then perhaps that would be worth doing. They know how to stabilize Iraq, they just need to stop allowing terrorists to cross their borders.

[Sen. Chris Dodd]
Thank you. [time has run out].

[Secretary Rice]
Shall I go to Iran? Because I do think they are different. When it comes to Iran... First of all there is a twenty-seven year history of not engaging Iran, so this would be a major shift in policy. Of course we did talk to them about Afghanistan, when that made sense.

But what we are looking at, again, is an Iran that is engaging activities to try to kill our troops. They know how to stop that. They know how to stop it tomorrow. They know how to stop destabilizing the young Iraqi government. And I assume that if they believe it's in their interest, they would do so.

But I just don't believe for a moment that the conversation with the Iranians is going to in the following way, "help us stabilize Iraq," and they don't want to talk about a price on their nuclear program.

We are, I think, dealing with Iran in the proper fashion. Which is to insist with the rest of the international community, that any negotiations with Iran are going to be on the basis of suspension of their nuclear program. We are reaching out to the Iranian people. We just had a group of Iranian medical doctors here. In exchange we will have some American sports teams go there.

We are making it difficult for Iran to continue its policies of terrorism and WMD pursuit, because we are sanctioning, and designating their banks that are engaged in those activities. And it is having an effect, on whether people are willing to invest in Iran, whether they are willing to take the reputational [sic] risk of handling Iranian assets. That's why banks are leaving Iran, that's why they are having trouble finding a way to support their investment in their oil and gas industry. We do have a pretty comprehensive way of dealing with Iran.

I have made the offer. If they are prepared to suspend their enrichment capability, I'm there. With their people at any time they would like, in any place they would like. But I think that that's the proper context.

And finally, we do have the opportunity, within the International Compact,
to have Iran and Syria play a positive role in Iraq if they wish to do it. They have been at those meetings of the International Compact and they should play a positive role. And so I don't think there is an absence of diplomacy, an absence of policy toward Iran and Syria. It's just that direct negotiations on this matter put us in the role of supplicant, and I think that's a problem.

[Chairman]
Thank you.

[During the Dr. Rice's concluding remarks, a male demonstrator who has held up a small cloth sign is addressed, and shortley after, during Sen. Hagel's statement, is removed, shouting while being dragged up the aisle. The time clock is reset.]


Transcript Senator Dick Lugar and Secretary Rice: 2007-01-11, Sen-FRC, The Administration's Plan for Iraq

This is a transcript of the entire exchange between Senator Richard (Dick) Lugar (R-Indiana) and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, appearing at the Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing 10:00 AM Thursday 11 January, 2007. A website for this meeting, titled The Administration's Plan for Iraq (has just moved from Jan 16 '07) carries streaming video of the entire proceeding. I prepared this transcript as best I could from a video recording. From Jan 2003 through Dec. 2006 Senator Lugar was the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and as of Jan 2006 is the ranking Republican leader on the committee. His website has a section elevating the Iraq policy debate with
a batch of policy letters on Iraq.

Interesting topics: dissecting the facts behind David Brooks' column titled "The Fog over Iraq," in the NYT 11 Jan 2007 (which may be more accessible here in the IHT); the 'side surge' of 4,000 American troops to Anbar province; the 1,100 Sons of Anbar.



[Sen. Dick Lugar (R-Indiana)]
Thank you Mr. Chairman. Secretary Rice, in the New York Times today, columnist David Brooks, in a column called The Fog over Iraq, presents information that I simply wanted your comment. Because you have indicated that you have visited with Prime Minister Maliki. And the article by David Brooks references the meeting of our President with Prime Minister Maliki on November 30th, in which purportedly Maliki presented a plan in which our troops would go to the periphery of Baghdad, would fight off insurgents---Sunni insurgents or whoever---trying to penetrate Baghdad. But the Iraqi army and police, including Shi'ites and Kurds, principally, would take over the responsibility of attempting to clear the city. Essentially, Brooks says President Bush rejected that plan---or our government did and the President as the head of it has indicated this---and decided that indeed we would do the opposite. American troops, and the additional troops, would come into Baghdad, would be embedded in the nine police districts. And would in fact be more heavily involved, whether door-to-door, and there certainly are disputes over whether that's the case, the thought is no, not door-to-door, that the Shiites go door-to-door, essentially, and that we are back, in the background, advising, and supporting, and so forth.

But the article goes on to suggest that in fact, or gives the impression that, Makili and Kurds and the Shi'ites had at least an idea of creating their own kind of stability. Now from our own standpoint, this might have rejected the Sunnis as a partner in the process, and that's led to greater destabilization of the country as a whole.

Let me just ask for your comment, as to whether this is the sequence of events that transpired into the plan that the President gave last night. And what are the strengths and dangers of that.

[Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice]
Yes, Senator Lugar, the core of the Maliki plan has really been preserved here. This really is based on his plan.

It is absolutely the case that the Iraqis have wanted to have responsibility for their own problem, to have their troops under their command, and to move out. When Prime Minister Maliki presented the plan, he wanted our people to look at it with his military people, to see how quickly this could be accelerated, so that he could go and take care of the sectarian problem in Baghdad.

The fact is, it could not be accelerated quickly enough with only Iraqi forces in order to meet the timeline that he really felt he had in terms of dealing with the Baghdad problem. And so, out of this planning process came, from our generals, the view that we needed to augment their forces as embeds---as, by the way, the Baker-Hamilton commission recommends---as people who can help them in a sense with on-the-job training, who can help them to kind of solidify their ability to go after this. But the Iraqis continue to press that they really need to be the ones interfacing with their population in a major way. They need to be the ones to deliver the stability that is needed.

I think you will see that in a relatively brief period of time, as their forces develop, they will take on more and more. And as the President said last night, the thought is they would have all their forces by November [ed? meaning, 2007?]. But there was a gap in time between the time that they need to get Baghdad under control and having the capability to do it. Even bringing, as they are, their best and most reliable army forces from around the country.

So that's the difference. But I don't believe that it was ever really the prime minister's intention that it would be Shi'ia and Kurds, only. I think he understands that one of the problems that they have is that the Sunni population feels that the Iraqi government is not even-handed in dealing with death squads.

[Sen. Dick Lugar]
What can you tell us about favorable reception of some of the sheiks, in Anbar province, of our new policies. Can you describe that situation.

[Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice]
Yes. Well, the last time that there was some kind of report about Anbar, remember some of the reporting as being the tremendous difficulties in Anbar. And it is a difficult place because it is the epicenter of al-Qaeda. Now what you will hear from our commanders in the area, and also I have heard directly from my provincial reconstruction team leader, a very seasoned diplomat, is that the sheiks have essentially gotten tired of al-Qaeda, and want them out. They do not believe that we can do that alone. They have begun to recruit their own young men, to be trained to be a force against the foreign invaders. They have for instance sent eleven hundred young men to Jordan, to train for something that they call the Sons of Anbar, to come back; they will recruit more and send them. This is also part of a success, we believe, of a policy with regional neighbors, who have been involved in the Sunni outreach piece. It is into that Anbar that we believe it is important to surge both civilian and military assets. And so when the President talks about four thousand additional forces into Anbar, this is not because of a sectarian problem, this is because we think we may be able to support this local effort against al-Qaeda and secondly, to surge resources into Anbar.

To be very frank, the chairman asked me if I was confident about the Iraqi government. [ed: Refers to earlier question from Sen. Joseph Biden] I am confident that they want to do this. I am also one who knows there have been times when they haven't performed in the past. And one of the things that they've got to perform better on is getting economic resources into some of the Sunni areas, particularly into Anbar. And so we are also going to increase the number of provincial reconstruction teams in Anbar to help with that process.

[Sen. Dick Lugar]
Thank you.



Wednesday, January 17, 2007

Transcript Senator Menendez and Secretary Rice 2007-01-11 Sen-FRC

So, which U.S. policy is harder to measure: success in Iraq, or success with domestic school policy ("no child left behind") ? If we can have benchmarks and consequences for children's education, can we at least formulate the criteria for success in Iraq?





[Sen. Bob Menendez (D New Jersey)]
Thank you Mr. Chairman, Madame Secretary thank you for your service to the country.

I didn't vote for the war in Iraq in the first place. I believe it was one of the best decisions I ever made. And I simply don't believe that the president's escalation of the war will work. It seems to me that it's time for a political surge, not a military escalation. And I also believe it's long past time that we transition both our efforts in Iraq, our mission in Iraq particularly with our troops, and then ultimately the transition of our troops out of Iraq, in order for having the Iraqis to understand what you've talked about here, but haven't given us any benchmarks that one can measure by. And that is, to have them understand that they have to make the hard choices, compromises, negotiations, necessary for a government of national unity.

When I heard Gen. Pace last year say to us, that "we have to get the Iraqis to love their children more than they hate their neighbors." That's a powerful truism, but it does not get achieved by military might.

And so, it seems to me, to paraphrase Shakespeare, ...An escalation by any other name is an escalation. I know out of the white house it came as surge. But surge would mean temporary, and that's clearly not the case here. And ...A failed strategy, however repackaged, is still a failed strategy. We tried this plan before, and it didn't work when we sent 12,000 troops to Baghdad last summer. And we heard a panel of witnesses yesterday and there have been other military experts who have said that at this point reliable Iraqi troops aren't there simply to show up.

So you've suggested that the President has listened to a wide range of people, the Iraqi study group, the members of Congress, different military options, the American people. But, if he listened, I don't think he's heard, I don't think he's heard that wide range of views.

So I want to ask you though, even in the midst of my own views, trying to understand, what is really new about this effort? Did the President obtain a commitment from Prime Mister Maliki specifically to use Iraqi troops against Muqtada al-Sadr's troops?


[Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice]
He obtained an assurance from Prime Minister Maliki that he will go after whoever is killing innocent Iraqis, and I think they fully understand that the jaish al-Madhi are part of the problem.

[Sen. Bob Menendez]
Did he speak specifically, about, and obtain specific commitments about going against al-Sadr.

[Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice]
He said that whoever they have to go after, and the military thinks they have to go after, they'll go after them.

[Sen. Bob Menendez]
The reason I ask the specific question is because it's al-Sadr who's keeping his government afloat right now.

[Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice]
Well actually al-Sadr and his people pulled out of the government, and the government hadn't collapsed. They pulled out as you remember because of the Amann meeting with President Bush. And I think that demonstrates that in fact they can continue to function even if the Sadr forces are not a part of the government.

[Sen. Bob Menendez]
When the president spoke to these other different... there is a broad misgiving among Shiite leaders in the government, about the Shiites having a deep seated fear that the power they won at the polls is going to be whittled away by Americans in pursuit of Sunnis... did he get their commitment to support Prime Minister Maliki?

[Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice]
I'm sorry, "their" being, the other Shi'ia?

[Sen. Bob Menendez]
The other Shi'ia leaders, the other party leaders.

[Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice]
Yes. The for instance [unclear ????skiri] supports Prime Minister Maliki in this effort. There is a broad ...

[Sen. Bob Menendez]
In the effort? Or to support him in his position as prime minister?

[Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice]
They support him as prime minister. They brought him to power.

[Sen. Bob Menendez]
Well, I find it really hard, unless we have a specific... I know that general view, that we will go against anyone. But isn't it in fact part of the negotiations that the president had with prime minister Maliki, is to give him more operational control. And in that operational control, couldn't he circumvent going against al-Sadr?

[Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice]
If he circumvents going against the people who are doing the killing, then he's going to fail, and his plan is going to fail. And he understands that.

[Sen. Bob Menendez]
Let's talk about that then. Let's assume that for argument's sake... let's not think about the best, the best would be great. Let's assume that he fails.

One of the problems is that benchmarks without time lines, or consequences, even the Iraq study group said that as part of their recommendation. They specifically said "if the Iraqi government does not make substantial progress towards the achievement of milestones on national reconciliation, security and governance, the United States should reduce its political, military, economic support for the Iraqi government."

But when I heard your response to Senator Coleman, you said, the Iraqis didn't have, you know... you go with plan "A", and if plan "A" doesn't work, then you know, you deal with it subsequently. I think that's been part of our problem here. We have a plan. But even Plan A does not have contingencies, it doesn't have benchmarks.

How can you ask the American people, and the members of Congress who represent the American people, to continue to give you a blank check without benchmarks that are definable, without benchmarks that have time lines of some consequence, without consequences to the failure to meet those deadlines. Because we've seen these benchmarks be repackaged from the past. They were benchmarks before, they were not met, there are no consequences, and we continue to create a dependency by the Iraqis on our forces.

[Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice]
But Senator, first of all, I think you do one strategy at a time. But you can tell, and you can adjust a strategy as you go along. This is not going to unfold all at once. We are going to know whether or not the Iraqis are living up to their obligations, and we are going to know early on, and there are opportunities for adjustment then.

The benchmarks are actually very clear, and the Iraqis themselves have set forward some timetables for those benchmarks because they've got to get legislation through, they have an international compact that they're trying to respond to. But I just want to speak to the point of consequences.

There are consequences in that they will loose the support of the American people. And they'll loose the support of the Iraqi people.

[Sen. Bob Menendez]
But they have already been there, Madame Secretary, in terms of the support of the American people. The question is, what will our government do, specifically, if benchmarks are not met, what will we do? And that's where there is no answer, and therefore [it is] very difficult to support any such policy.

[Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice]
Senator, I think it's just bad policy, frankly, to speculate on what you'll do if a plan fails that you are trying to make work. I just don't think it's the way to go about it.

[Sen. Bob Menendez]
The president did it in "leave no child behind." There are real consequences if you in fact don't meet certain standards: you loose a lot of money, you get categorized as a failed school district,

[Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice]
Yes, as complicated....

[Sen. Bob Menendez]
It seems to be a standard that can work here domestically. We are unwilling to give the government a standard that ultimately they would have to met in order for use to be able to achieve... whether or not to achieve success, or therefore determine what are the consequences to failure.

[Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice]
Senator, as complicated as education policy is, I think you're wrong. The circumstances of the Iraqis are very complicated. We're not giving... First of all, we don't expect that anyone here is giving us a blank check. I understand the skepticism. And I know that if this doesn't show some success, there isn't going to be support for this policy. I understand that. And we have said this to the Iraqis in no uncertain terms. They have to start to deliver, they have to start to deliver now, and if they don't, then I think they know that we are not going to be able to continue to support them at the levels that we do.



Where is C-SPAN3? Who actually gets it? No rural access.

As mentioned at the start, this blog is here because of Bush's "troop augmentation plan."

When that news built and then broke, I started looking for coverage of hearings during the week of January 11 2007. I found there was a slew of scheduled coverage on the obscure C-SPAN3 channel (cspan.org). For you who are not policy wonks or middle aged or have real day jobs, C-SPAN is how you can see your government in action. And you get the full coverage, commercial free, blemishes and all, not just the sound bites on the evening 1-minute news coverage. C-SPAN started with one channel that was carried gratis on cable networks as a public access project. They added C-SPAN2, and lately seem to have a loose convention of airing House of Representatives business on C-SPAN and Senate business on C-SPAN2. Then came a third channel C-SPAN3, which I notice is not carried, well, anywhere. A companion web site capitolhearings.org posts some hearing schedules, but I think not all hearings appear here.

OK. You can get some live webcasts. Darn it I have to install Real Player and open my firewall to its promiscuous and frequent upgrade proposals. But who out there has CSPAN3, either on their cable or dish access? I have Comcast cable in the pacific northwest, and cannot get it. They simply have not added it to their line-up (but new shopping/special commercial interest channels have been added often. Buy! Shop!). A family member in the plains states has DirecTV and they don't have it on that dish line-up. I can recall staying in a hotel in NY and I think I saw it there for the first time (perhaps that's Time Warner cable). So why the blackout of C-SPAN3?

What''s the beef? Why me worry? C-SPAN3 seems to be where the "real juicy" stuff of government has been aired, live, in recent weeks, in particular the House and Senate committee hearings. Since the Republican Congress seems to have been a sleeping lap dog the last 6 years, it seems fitting that since the tide turned Democratic in the House and Senate the new season of Congress is seeing a renewal of oversight, and this is interesting to watch. (OK, there's my political leanings. Satisfied?)

While the Senate and House are in session, the first two C-SPAN channels pretty much dedicate all their air time to live coverage. The only place to see the hearings live is C-SPAN3. Late at night, or after the Senate and House adjourn, other coverage can start, including the book, call-in shows, and a re-play of interesting committee hearings. But the air times for these items don't get posted to the schedule until after the Congressional bodies adjourn, so there is no fixed schedule. It's as if, during the Watergate hearings, there was a live broadcast on a mystery channel that no-one could watch, with random replays late at night on the accessible channel. The priorities are back-asswards, as I find that most live Senate/House coverage is pretty dull.

Comcast has a spot on their website to "request" channels. I did so last summer, again this month. I plan to request monthly, weekly, maybe start writing a letter. Maybe CC the letter to the FCC? But on the C-SPAN website, there is a note that there is a multi-way spat between the FCC and for-profit broadcasters and the cable and dish industry about "access." A polite way of saying they are fighting over allocation of channels and available bandwidth. These fights do not seem to stop Comcast from adding a gazillion for-profit channels that air paid advertising. But to add one more non-advertising channel seems to be more than they want to deliver.

Broadband webcasts? Sure. Except that in a lot of the rural areas, you can't get broadband. Sounds like an equal access issue to me. My family in the plains cannot get DSL, even 300-baud dial-up, because the driveway to the house is 3/4 mile, and phone line quality is poor. Back in the stone-age when I used dial-up at my Northwest suburban home, I could not get my laptop dial-up to work out there, even at 300 baud. DSL is not available there today. Cell phone reception is sketchy. Cable: forget it, they will never run cable to these areas. Satelite internet: yeah right, for a thousand dollars in equipment and $50 to $100 monthly, no.

I could hope that some day Wi-Max will get built out along the state highway and rural towns and provide broadband coverage. Or, that fiber optic will get built out to the rural areas: but the big telco's like Verizon and Sprint sold off their rural wireline subsidiaries long ago: low subscriber base per square mile, low margin business, customers not wanting to pay for the triple-play package.

Tuesday, January 16, 2007

Transcript Senator Voinovich and Secretary Rice 2007-01-11 Sen-FRC

Continuing on from the last posts. The following is an excerpt from the Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing, Thursday Jan 11 2007, the day after Bush announced his new Iraq initiative and the imminent deployment of 21,500 more troops overseas. This is the entirety of Sen. George Voinovich's question and answer with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

This is the hearing where you heard the lingusitic shift (or re-write) from "surge of troops" to "augmentation of troops."





[Sen George Voinovich (R-Ohio)]
Secretary, I'm sorry that I wasn't here for your testimony for the other questions so you'll forgive me if I am going to be redundant. But I met this morning with representatives from ten nations who are concerned about our visa waiver program. And I believe that the current program, and I'm glad the president understands this, needs to be changed, because these people are our allies in helping us in Afghanistan, and Iraq. And I think you know that the most important weapon, I think, in terms of winning the war on terror is public diplomacy, and it needs to be improved substantially. And I'm hoping, Mr. Chairman, that we can get on to this whole issue of visa waiver early on in this session so that we can get it done. And calm down some of our allies that are really upset with us that they can't get their people here into the United States because of this unrealistic program that we have.

I think you should know that I am skeptical that a surge of troops will bring and end to the escalation of violence and the insurgency in Iraq. Many of the generals that have served there have said they don't believe additional troops will be helpful in Baghdad, particularly.

And Madame Secretary, my faith in Prime Minister Maliki's ability to make the hard choices necessary to bring about political solutions has to be restored. What we need is a political solution between the Sunnis and the Shiite. And I've asked this question now for two years. How can you have a unity government, that isn't dominated by the Shiites, that will ultimately get rid of the Sunnis that are in Iraq, when you have Sadr there, Muqtada al-Sadr, who from everything I understand pretty well tells Maliki what to do. We've seen evidence where we've done certain things, he makes a telephone call, and Maliki pulls the plug.

I think that we underestimate the hatred between Sunnis and Shiites. And we're saying that somehow they're all going to get together and everything's going to be happy. The Sunnis and the Baathists kept the Shiites down for many many years, now the Shiites are in the majority. The issue is, are you going to end up with a unity government, or are you going to have another theocracy, like you have in Iran? I think that's what Sadr wants. So, how can you explain to us, that this is all going to be worked out? Probably this article was discussed already this morning, the Fog, David Brooks' article, in the New York Times? [David Brooks: The Fog over Iraq in the NYT and the IHT, Jan 11, 2007]

He says that the plan we're proposing isn't reflecting what Maliki says he wants done. And I'd insist that Maliki gets up and makes it clear to the whole world that this is what he wants done! That he's for it! And this isn't the United States on our own superimposing what we think needs to be done on him. Because I think that if that's not done, every one's going to think, here we go again, the U.S. is in there on their own.

The other question's been raised here, is how much help are we getting from our Sunni friends, there. What have they done to help us? Countries that had been our friends are leaving. Why is it that they're leaving? Have they lost confidence that this dream that we had of a democracy there, which many of us bought into, isn't going to happen? And that it's going to break down into a civil war situation?

And I think the question that all of us have is this: we don't want any more of our young men killed in a civil war between two groups that ultimately are never going to come together. I send letters out to the families and tell them how brave their sons were, that the work they're doing there, and the deaths, were as important as what we had in the second world war. But I have to rewrite the letter today. We're talking now about stability.

We're talking about young men and women. This is a very, very important decision. And I think you're going to have to do a much better job, and so is the president, explaining this to us. You've seen the testimony here among my colleagues.

And I must tell you, I've gone along with the president on this, and I've bought into his dream, and at this stage of the game I don't think it's going to happen.

[Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice]
Well thank you Senator. I think that we don't have an option to fail in Iraq. The consequences are too great. And... I just don't think it is true that the Iraqi Sunnis and Shia hate each other to the point that they can't live together... I don't believe that. I do think that there are long pent up tensions and emotions and grievances in that society that come from years of tyranny and it's going to take some time for them to get over it, and I do think they've had a very bad set of circumstances by...

[Sen George Voinovich]
Yes Madame Secretary, but what evidentiary fact do we have that he is going to make the tough political decisions that he has to make. And loose his support from Maliki [???did he mean Maliki loose Sadr support?] and the others...

[Secretary Rice]
Senator, we have from him these assurances. He's going to have to act on them. We're going to know very soon whether or not there is political interference when his forces, and they're his forces, want to go into a neighborhood. And we're going to know very soon whether or not he is carrying through with his view, with what he told us, which is that if you are Sunni or Shia, and you are outside the law and you are killing innocent Iraqis, then you have to pay a price for that. You have to be punished. We're going to know. And American forces, as they flow in over time, will only go to support a policy in which Iraqis are carrying out those obligations.

But I just want to emphasize again. I've heard everybody say, we cannot fail, we cannot fail, we cannot fail. If they are unable to get a hold of the sectarian violence, to show that they can control Baghdad, to establish confidence that they are going to be even-handed, then it's going to be very difficult for them to get...

[Sen George Voinovich]
How can we do it with Sadr? How can we do it with Sadr?

[Secretary Rice]
The Iraqis are going to have to deal with Sadr. And to the degree that Sadr is outside of the political process, and his death squads are engaged in violence, then they are going to have to deal with those death squads. And the Prime Minister has said: nobody and nothing is off limits. We will know, Senator, whether or not they are following through. But we've really got to give him a chance to get ahold of this sectarian violence in their capitol, where it's not Iraqis running down the streets, killing other Iraqi Sunnis and Shia. It is organized death squads, going into neighborhoods and killing Sunnis and Shia. That is what's going on there. And they need to re-establish civil order, and we need to be able to help them do that. That is the purpose of the augmentation of our forces.


Transcript Senator Nelson and Secretary Rice 2007-01-11 Sen-FRC

Continuing on from the last post. The following is an excerpt from the Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing, Thursday Jan 11 2007, the day after Bush announced his new Iraq initiative and the imminent deployment of 21,500 more troops overseas. This is the entirety of Sen. Bill Nelson's (D-Florida) question and answer with the Secretary.


[Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Florida)]
Madame Secretary, I have supported you and the administration on the war, and I cannot continue to support the administration's position. I have not been told the truth. I have not been told the truth over and over again by administration witnesses, and the American people have not been told the truth. And I don't come to this conclusion very lightly. Does General Abizaid support an increase in troops?

[Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice]
He does.

[Sen. Bill Nelson]
Well, that's at variance, of course, as you've heard.

[Secretary Rice]
I think Senator, he, first of all, if you look at his testimony, and you look at the next lines of his testimony, he talks about the conditions under which troops might be useful. And in fact, everybody had hoped this would be done with Iraqi forces. It wasn't that we didn't need more forces, it was hoped that we do it with Iraqi forces. And what the Baghdad security plan of the summer showed was that that wasn't possible. Gen. Abizaid and Gen. Casey have been involved in the development of this plan and it is in fact Gen. Casey who presented this option to the president.

[Sen. Bill Nelson]
Well I am looking forward to talking to Gen. Abizaid. He is one of the few that have come before a number of the committees that I have the privilege of sitting on, that I feel like has been a straight shooter. And it's my hope that Chairman Carl Levin will call him and I will ask him directly. But of course I was one of the ones that asked him that question very specifically when he was last here in front of the Congress. And he is someone that I think has credibility but, sad to say, he is one of the few that I felt like I was getting the straight story from.

Let me pick up on something Sen. Coleman said. Three weeks ago we were in Iraq, and our mouths about dropped open when the national security advisor Dr. Rubai [Iraqi interim government National Security Adviser Dr. Muaffaq al-Rubai] said, and I think it's almost his direct quote, this is not a sectarian war. And he went on to talk about how it's extremists, al-Qaeda, and how it's the Ba'thists that want to come back into power. And of course that's part of it. But the two of us, certainly this Senator, got the impression, that they are not coming to grips with what they have to come with. And that is, that you've got Sunnis on Shiites, and Shiites on Shiites, and Sunnis on Sunnis. And until you get to that problem being solved, it's just simply not going to work.

Now I'll tell you one place that I agree with a statement of the President last night. That he was going to send additional troops into Anbar province. I was convinced by the Marine commanders there, as I think Sen. Colewell was as well, that there where you have just a Sunni population, and that the enemy is al-Qaeda, that working with those Sunni tribal leaders with additional American troops, that you can get some progress. But not so in Baghdad. And I'm sad that we've come to this point.

Let me just conclude by asking you. I think it's been said by a number here, and I would like for you to amplify: obviously we need an intense diplomatic effort in the region. One of the points of my trip was at the request of General Hayden to go and talk with the Saudi King, urging them to use their tribal contacts in Iraq to try to get people to come together. Could you outline for the committee, what is the intense diplomatic effort that is going to be taken, and is it being taken simultaneously with the President's plan of the additional troops?

[Secretary Rice]
Senator, it is being taken. I will go out tomorrow night. The group that we are engaging in addition to all the many bilateral engagements we have with the Saudis, with the Kuwaiti's, with the others who can help, the Jordanians, who can help, is through a group called the GCC+2,that is really the appropriate group. We work also with Turkey, very closely on Iraq. We have a problem on the Northern border with the PKK, that Gen. Ralston is trying to resolve.

But I think you would find that first of all there already has been diplomatic effort. We will of course try to intensify that effort to support what the Maliki government is now trying to do to get its sectarian problem under control. Frankly the countries of the region are also watching to see whether this will be an even-handed government in dealing with both Sunnis and Shia. And so, the Maliki government faces, I think, some skepticism not just from Americans and from Iraqis, but also from the region. And we've made that point to them, that they really must deal with the sectarian problem in an even-handed fashion or they are not going to get support from the region.

That said, to the degree that we hear from the Saudis and others their biggest strategic concern is Iran, then they have a very strong incentive to stabilize Iraq so that Iraq is indeed a barrier to Iranian influence in the region, not a bridge.

[Sen. Biden, as the time remaining is 30 seconds]
Quick question please.

[Sen. Bill Nelson]
We need more than engagement. We need to get these countries to act. So how do you get them to act?

[Secretary Rice]
There is an international compact that they've all negotiated. We need to finalize it.



Transcript Senator Biden and Secretary Rice 2007-01-11 Sen-FRC

I became engrossed in the Iraq policy events of last week after President Bush announced (Jan 10 2007) his new Iraq initiative and the planned deployment of 21,500 additional troops in Iraq. This administration action has been called, by more than one Senator and others, possibly the greatest foreign policy blunder in U.S. history. Whether your opinion of the Iraq war is to concur, "disagree and commit," or disagree outright, this is an important inflection point in the Iraq war and I think it is important to record what's going on here; hence this blog.

What follows is a transcript of the exchange between committee chairman Sen. Joseph Biden (D-Delaware) and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, appearing at the U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations hearing 10:00 AM Thursday 11 January, 2007. Streaming video of this meeting, The Administration's Plan for Iraq, can also be accessed on teh FRC website (just moved since 11 Jan, '07).

The following transcript picks up after they have read their prepared statements at the start of the hearing. I prepared this transcript as best I could from a video recording. I've looked on several Senate and C-SPAN sites but not found full transcripts, including questions and responses, of all the various hearings being conducted. I recorded and have started to transcribe some of the interchanges in the Senate hearings. Some Senators have put their prepared remarks on their web sites or the Sen-FRC site (links below).
I'll keep posting more dialog to this blog and links to transcripts as I find them.


Two items stand out for me during the following interchange: the use of the word "census" and the phrase "image in mind."






[Senator Joseph Biden (D-Delaware)]
... Let me begin. Secretary Rice, last night the preseident said, and I quote, "succeeding
in Iraq requires defending the teritorial integrity and stabilizing the region in the face of
[extreme] challenges, and that begins with addressing Iran and Syria."


He went on to say "we will interrupt the flow of support from Iran and Syria, and will seek out and destroy networks providing advanced weaponry and training to our enemies in Iraq. "

Does that mean the President has plans to cross the Syrian and or Iranian border to pursue
those persons or individuals or governments providing that help?

[Secretary Condoleezza Rice]
Mr Chairman, the Chairman the Joint Chiefs was just asked this question and I think he answered it best. What we are really trying to do here is protect our forces. We that we are doing that by seeking out these networks that are operating in Iraq. We are doing it through intelligence. We are then able, as we did on the 21st of December [2006], to go after these groups where we find them. In that case we then asked the Iraqi government to declare them personna nongratta and expel them from the country because they were holding diplomatic passports.

But what is really being contemplated here in terms of these networds is that believe we can do what we need to do inside Iraq. Obviously the president isn't going to rule anything out to protect our troops, but the plan is to take down these networks in Iraq.

The broader point is that we do have and always have had as a country very strong interest and allies in the gulf region. And we do need to work with our allies to make certain that they have the defense capacity that they need against growing Iranian military buildup, that they feel that we are going to be a presence in the Persian Gulf region as we have been, and that we establish confidence with the states with which we have had long aliances, that we will help to defend their interests. And that is what the President had in mind.

[Senator Joseph Biden]
Secretary Rice, do you believe the president has the constitutional authority to pursue across the border into Iraq or Syria the networks in those countries?

[Secretary Rice]
Well, Mr. Chairman, I think I would not like to speculate on the President's constitutional authority, or to try and say anything that certainly would abridge his constitutional authority, which is broad as Commander in Chief.

I do think that everyone will understand that the American people, and I assume the Congress,
expects the President will do what is necessary to protect our forces.

[Senator Joseph Biden]
Madame Secretary, I just want to make it clear, speaking for myself, that if the president
concluded he had to invade Iran or Syria in pursuit of these networks, I believe the present authorization granted the president to use force in Iraq does not cover that, and he does need Congressional authority to do that. I just want to set that marker.

Let me move on. How long do you estimate American forces will be going door-to-door with their Iraqi counterparts in Baghdad, before they can, I believe the phrase is, secure, or clear, hold, and build. What is the estimate of how long it will take to clear, and how long are we prepared to hold American forces in Baghdad that are being surged?

[Secretary Rice]
Well, I can't give you an exact time table on how long operations might take. Let me just note that the Iraqis are in the lead on these Baghdad operations, and I think that one reason that it is extremely important that they are bringing some of their best forces from around Iraq to participate in this, to lead this effort, is that a good deal of the establishing of confidence in these neighborhoods has been done by Iraqis. We will be in support of them.

But I think that it's extremely important to have an image in mind: that it is Iraqis who are expected to take census, after all they are the ones with the linguistic skills to do so, it is Iraqis who are expected to be in these neighborhoods. The problem with previous Baghdad security plans were there weren't enough forces to hold. I think that it is important that it will be a combination of forces: Iraqi forces, army, police, and national police, and local police. But we want to be certain this time that the holding phase lasts long enough for the Iraqis to be able to deal with the perpetrators of the violence. So I don't want to put a time frame on it. Secretary Gates said early today that he expects this to be, of course, a temporary measure, while Iraqi forces are brought up to speed ...



[Senator Joseph Biden]
Secretary Rice, I think you're right, it's important to have a visual image of what this means. Six point two million people. Civil war, a sectarian war, taking place. And here is what the President said last night, referring to our surge troops. The vast majority of them, five brigades, will be deployed to Baghdad. These troops will work alongside Iraqi units and will be embedded in their formations.

No American should misunderstand what that means. It means that young Marines are going to be standing next to an Iraqi soldier as they break down a door. So, I want to know, and you've answered it, my question related to, how long we think these Marines and these five brigades are going to be kicking in doors, standing on street corners, patrolling neighborhoods, going to second-storey walk-ups, et cetera. And that was the reason for my question. But you're right. It's important we have the correct image of what this is. And that's what it is.

[Secretary Condoleezza Rice]
It is important that we have the correct image, that Iraqis want to have this be their responsibility.

[Sen Joseph Biden]
Are you confident, you personally, Madame Secretary, this is going to be my concluding question, are you confident that Maliki has the capacity to send you a sufficient number of troops that will stay in the lead, that will allow American Marines to feel that their physical security is not being jeopardized merely by being with this brigade of Iraqis? Are you confident they will send a sufficient number, and their best?

[Secretary Condoleezza Rice]
Most importantly, General Casey and our ambassador believe strongly that the Maliki government intends to live up to its obligation...

[Sen Joseph Biden]
But I'm asking you, Secretary...

[Secretary Condoleezza Rice]
I have met Prime Minister Maliki. I was with him in Amman. I saw his resolve. I think he knows that his government is, in a sense, on borrowed time, not just in terms of the American people, but in terms of the Iraqi people.

[Sen Joseph Biden]
But are you confident?

[Secretary Condoleezza Rice]
I am confident.

[Sen Joseph Biden]
Thank you very much.


Monday, January 15, 2007

Getting started

Trying this stuff out for the first time. So much to share, but who cares, really? All I really want is to archive things I think are important, record a stream of consciousness, type up pithy comments, see them published, and have a large Internet search engine company direct ads my way based on what I type. Is this a great country, or what?